St. Johns County residents are entering the heart of hurricane season with an unusually quiet Atlantic forecast, though hurricane preparedness remains important throughout the season.
Colorado State University’s latest two-week tropical cyclone outlook gives a 97% chance that activity will be below normal through Sept. 15. The forecast puts the chance of near-normal activity at 3% and indicates essentially no chance of above-normal activity during that period.
Wind shear limiting development
Forecasters attribute much of the lull to a strengthening El Niño pattern, which has increased wind shear across the Caribbean and Atlantic. Wind shear can disrupt developing tropical systems before they organize or intensify.
As of Sept. 2, the National Hurricane Center’s seven-day outlook did not identify a tropical system to monitor. Colorado State researchers said the atmospheric pattern is generally unfavorable for cyclone formation, although conditions could become more supportive later in September.
Season has still produced U.S. landfalls
Five named storms had formed during the 2026 Atlantic season by early September, according to the report. Three of them — Arthur, Bertha and Edouard — made landfall in the United States, despite being relatively short-lived systems.
Colorado State University also reduced its seasonal projection from 13 named storms to nine for the June 1 through Nov. 30 hurricane season. Its next two-week outlook is scheduled for release Sept. 16.